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Parker Pages: Blackjack Main

Still not right

Posted By: ET Fan
Date: Thursday, 3 February 2005, at 4:37 p.m.

In Response To: Snyder/McDowell? A middle-road approach (Zenfighter)

I was about to congratulate you for coming up with the right answer. Unfortunately, things don't add up in case 3) where the player and dealer share the extra aces.

You have improvement over random distribution for effect A (ace might go to player) and improvement over random distribution for effect B (ace might go to dealer), then to get the total EV you add these effects to get total EV.

Sorry. What might be reasonable is to assume you've calculated total improvement over random distribution for both effects A and B. In that case we get: EV = -.41% + 0.45% = +0.04%. Four one-hundredths of a percent.

But it's still not right. Rather than add improvements, why not save a step and just add EVs?? Total EV = 0.873% - 1.248% = -0.375% Disadvantage to the player!

Why don't we get the same answer either way? Because, once again, you can not add or subtract EVs unless the events are mutually exclusive. Please take my word on this -- you really can't (just a little unpretensious advice ;) ;) ).

ETF

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