Where AP Numbers Come From
When you stand at an AP machine, the most important question is whether the numbers on screen are good enough to play.
This is an explanation of how we deduce these thresholds.
Nobody Publishes the Numbers We Want
The manufacturer, casino, state gaming commission, and machine fine print do not reveal AP thresholds.
A slot machine will show you the rules, the paytables, the current state of whatever is accumulating. It will not tell you the point at which that game state is worth more than it costs to chase.
It is up to the players to figure out the thresholds and setups, one machine at a time, and these numbers circulate in close knit communities rather than in public. The result is that the numbers you need to make a play are scarce, and the ones you find are sometimes wrong, incomplete, or misleading.
That is the problem the game library hopes to solve, and below is an explanation of what we do and how we do it.
Three Paths to a Reliable Answer
The first path is pure arithmetic. Some par sheets — the manufacturer's internal document — list enough details to determine the theoretical returns directly, and the points where game states cross 100% return to player (RTP). Unfortunately, most par sheets are not public, and even when acquired, many par sheets do not contain enough information to be useful to the AP world.
Second, reputable gaming mathematicians like Wizard of Odds reconstruct game mechanics and run simulations and statistical analysis to arrive at their answers. This is the most rigorous work in the field and we give credit rather than pretend we got there first.
Third, advantage players rely on observation and experience. When a new game is released, we hypothesize, observe, test hypotheses. We keep good records, adjust, and correct our starting estimates. We get a starting point rather than a mathematical answer. This is how most working thresholds in the AP field actually get built.
On a low volatility title we can adjust quickly and reach a reliable consensus quickly. On a high volatility game, it can take years and a coordinated effort of many players before we reach a reliable consensus. (Buffalo Diamond, for example)
Ranges Are Better Than False Precision
Most games come with a range of settings that casinos configure differently. Settings will vary between properties, and occasionally between machines sitting in the same bank.
Additionally, there is more than one way to beat a casino. Not everyone is looking for the highest edge on a single play. Some people are beating the casino via various promotions and incentives. What is a 99% RTP to you might be a 120% RTP game to them (after multiplier promos/freeplay/etc).
A single universal number would be easier to publish but it gives a false sense of certainty. We generally give you a range so that you can start at the conservative end, and move toward the aggressive end as the property, the promotions or your own results justify it.
A tight range you can adjust beats false precision.
Confidence Index - Speed vs Accuracy
Not every number in the library is equally settled. A game released two weeks ago will not have the same confidence rating as a game that has been on floors for three years and everyone knows how to play it:
- 1–2— usually a new game that hasn't been thoroughly tested. The number is a working estimate. Expect it to move. Why publish this at all? Because it is better to have a starting point than nothing at all. People who spot games early reach more accurate thresholds earlier, and make more money. That's the bottom line.
- 3 — generally usable. Enough sessions to trust it, but not enough to call it a settled strategy.
- 4–5 — mature. Substantial logged data, corroborated against other players, stable across properties and revisions.
A low rating is not a warning to stay away. It is a statement about how much margin to leave yourself, and how closely to watch your own results against ours. You want to be one of the first players to the table, instead of playing another (overplayed) Scarab game perfectly.
CI ratings move up as evidence accumulates. Occasionally, they also go down when, for example, a game is updated by the manufacturer.
Numbers Move - Keeping Up to Date
A threshold is a current working snapshot. It shifts when:
- A manufacturer revises the game or pushes new software
- A property changes its configuration
- Accumulated data moves the estimate
- Recent results contradict past results
When any of those happen, the number in the library is adjusted, as is its confidence rating. A guide you read six months ago might not say what it says today.
Playing Buffalo Ascension the way you played it when it came out is a good way to lose money today.
A list downloaded once decays quietly, and you find out with each disappointing result. Keeping the numbers current is what the subscription pays for — we do our best to post at least 4 new guides each month alongside the updates to existing ones.
Thresholds and Variance (warning)
A threshold describes where a game turns favourable across a large number of trials. It says nothing about your next session. Variance on some titles is severe enough to produce long losing stretches on plays that were entirely correct.
Where a game is particularly volatile we give you a warning. The cardinal sin in advantage play is starting a play you cannot afford to finish.
Good numbers are also not a substitute for your own records. Our numbers tell you where the edge should be. Only your numbers tell you how well you are executing considering local conditions, and where you might need to refine.
None of this is financial advice. Read the full disclaimer.
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